Domestic rating agency Icra on Wednesday said India's real GDP growth for the September quarter is likely to decline to 6.5 per cent due to heavy rains and weaker corporate performance. The agency, however, maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7 per cent on expectations of a pick up in economic activity in the second half of the fiscal.
India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
Former Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy V Subramanian outlines India's strategy to become a USD 55 trillion economy by 2047. The plan hinges on leveraging its young demographic in AI, dominating sunrise sectors like space and defence tech, attracting FDI, and achieving sustained 8% GDP growth.
However, the World Bank has projected India's GDP growth rate at 7.5 per cent for the next three financial years, including the current one.
Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday lowered India's GDP growth forecast for the 2020 calendar year to 5.3 per cent, on coronavirus implications on the economy. Moody's had in February projected a 5.4 per cent real GDP growth for India in 2020. This too was a downgrade from 6.6 per cent earlier forecast.
Production growth in India's eight core infrastructure sectors slowed to a three-month low of 2.3 per cent in February, impacted by contractions in crude oil, natural gas, and refinery products output.
For 2020 calendar year, it reduced the estimate by a similar measure to 6.7 per cent.
S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
India's GDP is likely to grow at 6.5 to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year amid global challenges which may impact exports, said Economic Survey 2023-24 tabled in Parliament on Monday. The growth projected for 2024-25 is lower than the economic growth rate of 8.2 per cent estimated for the previous financial year. The Reserve Bank has projected the GDP growth for the fiscal year ending March 2025 at 7.2 per cent.
Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's on Thursday said India's economic growth may fall marginally to 7.5-8 per cent, but inflation outlook remained stable at 5-5.5 per cent in 2007.
S&P Global Ratings has affirmed India's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB' with a stable outlook, citing the country's dynamic and fast-growing economy, strong external balance sheet, and stable institutions that ensure policy predictability.
Projecting a much better forecast than those made by the government and Reserve Bank of India, economic think tank NCAER on Tuesday said the Indian economy could grow by up to 8.9 per cent during 2008-09, despite a global slowdown.
Economists highlight that resolving domestic policy bottlenecks, particularly through land reforms and improving the ease of doing business, will be critical for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'next-generation reforms' and India's economic transformation towards its 'Viksit Bharat' vision for 2047.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP growth estimate to 12.8 per cent for the fiscal year beginning April 1 from its previous estimate of 11 per cent, saying its recovery from the depths of the lockdown-induced recession has been swifter than expected. In its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch said revision is on the back of "a stronger carryover effect, a looser fiscal stance and better virus containment." "India's second half of 2020 rebound also took GDP back above its pre-pandemic level and we have revised up our 2021-2022 forecast to 12.8 per cent from 11.0 per cent," it said. "Nevertheless, we expect the level of Indian GDP to remain well below our pre-pandemic forecast trajectory."
The 25 per cent US tariffs, plus a penalty for Russian imports, could dent India's GDP growth by 30 basis points in the current fiscal, but the higher duty is unlikely to significantly affect India's domestic demand-driven economy, Barclays said on Thursday. If the 25 per cent tariff, announced by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, is implemented from August 1, the effective average US import tariff on Indian goods will rise to 20.6 per cent in trade-weighted terms, as per Barclays estimates.
India's services activity expanded in August, but the pace of growth cooled to the second-slowest since March 2022, despite stronger output and new business, according to the HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index.
Analysts predict that the Indian stock market's sentiment this week will be primarily influenced by the domestic GDP data announcement, crude oil prices, and the crucial US non-farm payrolls report.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
'They are claiming that they are very good in governance. All governments do propaganda. This is the propaganda of the government that they are doing very well, in spite of all the troubles.'
'The nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 may be revised upwards on higher growth expectations.'
'They are claiming that they are very good in governance. All governments do propaganda. This is the propaganda of the government that they are doing very well, in spite of all the troubles.'
The World Bank has increased India's economic growth projection for FY27 to 6.6 per cent, citing resilient domestic demand, while simultaneously cutting its global economic growth outlook due to the conflict in West Asia.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.8 per cent saying the second Covid wave may derail the budding recovery in the economy and credit conditions.
Fitch Ratings forecasts a 9 per cent aggregate revenue increase for rated Indian corporates in the current fiscal year (FY27), a stronger outlook compared to the 5 per cent estimated for FY26, which is expected to keep credit metrics stable despite potential global and domestic challenges.
Assam emerged as the fastest-growing large state with a remarkable 17.3 per cent nominal GDP CAGR over five years.
India's economic growth is expected to be lower at 6.3 per cent this fiscal compared to the RBI's projection of 6.5 per cent, a SBI Research Report said on Thursday. The report pegged the first quarter GDP estimate at around 6.8-7 per cent, mainly due to muted private capex.
Moody's expected economic activity to pick up in 2020 and 2021 to 6.6 per cent and 6.7 per cent, respectively.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed marginally lower due to elevated crude oil prices, fresh US-Iran tensions, and expectations of a tighter monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve, despite strong domestic GDP growth.
True sustainable growth can come only through an increase in productivity, and such increases can happen only through innovations, technical and organisational, in all sectors of the economy - industry, services and agriculture, writes Ajit Balakrishnan.
The State Bank of India (SBI), in its research, has estimated GDP growth during the current financial year (2024-25) to be 6.3 per cent, assuming that the NSO does not make major revisions to the erstwhile first and second quarter estimates.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
Higher US Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield approaching 5 per cent, pose a significant near-term risk to global equity markets, including India, potentially triggering a 'big correction' according to market strategists.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray has voiced strong concerns about the divisive role of social media in society, alleging it fuels anger and religious disputes. He also criticised the unbridled use of high-decibel sound systems, questioned the government's economic policies despite GDP growth claims, and objected to political messaging in public offices. Thackeray further addressed linguistic politics and endorsed the "Inquilab Zindabad" slogan.
Economists widely anticipate the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee will increase the repo rate by 50 basis points, likely split between the October and December meetings, as retail inflation is projected to peak at 6.1 per cent in the third quarter, exceeding the RBI's tolerance limit.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.3 per cent in the current fiscal year, a tad lower than the government's estimate of 6.4 per cent, owing to several factors such as weak demand, SBI research report said on Wednesday. According to the first advance estimates (FAE) of National Income for 2024-25 released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), released on Tuesday, India's economic growth rate is estimated to slip to a four-year low of 6.4 per cent in 2024-25, because of poor showing by the manufacturing and subdued investments.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday raised the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7 per cent from 6.5 per cent earlier on buoyant domestic demand and higher capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, however, flagged protracted geopolitical turmoil and global economic fragmentation as risks to the growth outlook. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent in Friday's monetary policy statement.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stated that India's economy is projected to return to a 7 per cent-plus growth trajectory by 2027-28 (FY28), or sooner if external conditions improve, despite near-term challenges from the West Asia crisis.
India's GDP growth to reach 8% by 2017. says World Bank
